WORKING PAPERS

"Are Inflation Movements Global in Nature? " 

Link to paper

Presentations: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (x2), Midwest Economics Association (forthcoming)

In this paper, I study the degree of inflation synchronization across countries for a panel of 40 countries from 2000m1 to 2022m8.  A dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility is used to decompose inflation into a global, income-group and idiosyncratic components. I find that the share of the global inflation factor accounts for 22% of the total variation  of inflation on average. Common shocks including the GFC 2008-09, abrupt changes in oil prices and the pandemic contribute to episodes of prominent inflation synchronization. 

"Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Challenges for Inflation and Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa " with Marijn Bolhuis (International Monetary Fund) and Shushanik Hakobyan (International Monetary Fund) (Under review)

IMF Working Paper No. 2023/039

Analytical Corner (IMF)

Presentations: International Monetary Fund (x2), Midwest Economics Association

In this paper, Marijn, Shushanik and I examine the impact of global supply chain disruptions on different measures of inflation, highlighting the first- and second-round effects on tradable and nontradable core inflation for a panel of 29 Sub-Saharan African Economies.  First, our results show that global supply chain shocks differ from commodity price shocks due to their outsized impact on the tradable components of the core inflation basket. Second, we quantify that supply chains shocks contributed to 45% of the inflation surge during 2020-22. Third, we study the optimal monetary policy in response to global supply chain shocks.

"The Role of Expectations in Real-Time Forecasting of US Inflation" (Under review)

Link to paper SSRN Nov. 2023

Presentations: Midwest Economics Association

I extend the benchmark AR gap models to a multivariate setting and perform a real-time forecasting exercise of US inflation. The results show that (i) forecast combination improves forecast accuracy over simpler models, (ii) aggregating survey measures, using dynamic principal components, improves forecast accuracy, (iii) and the additional information obtained from the error correction process between inflation and long run inflation expectations can improve forecasting performance.

"From Global Supply Chain Disruptions to Local Inflation: Implications for Monetary Policy" with Marijn Bolhuis and Shushanik Hakobyan, December 2023 (Under review).

Link to paper

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a significant disruption to global supply chains. In this paper, Marijn, Shushanik and I paper examine the implications of such disruptions for inflation and monetary policy. We find that the increase in supply chain pressures had a sizeable impact on inflation for a panel of 87 countries from 1998 to 2022. The effects are more pronounced in countries where tradable imports account for a larger share of the consumption basket and in those with weaker monetary policy frameworks and persistent core inflation. 

 “Inflationary Effect of Cyclones in Madagascar” with Faniry Andriamialisoa

"The Impact of Foreclosure on Housing Market: Evidence from Milwaukee, Wisconsin" with N. Kundan Kishor,  Rebecca Konkel, Jangsu Yoon, Tian Zhao , Matthew W. Waller