"The Role of Survey-Based Expectations in Real-Time Forecasting of US Inflation", Business Economics, 2025 [Working Paper Version]
"Are Inflation Movements Global in Nature?", Macroeconomic Dynamics, Volume 29 , 2025 , e97 [Working Paper Version]
"From Global Supply Chain Disruptions to Local Inflation: Implications for Monetary Policy" with Marijn Bolhuis and Shushanik Hakobyan, 2024 (Submitted).
The Covid-19 pandemic caused a significant disruption to global supply chains. In this paper, Marijn, Shushanik and I paper examine the implications of such disruptions for inflation and monetary policy. We find that the increase in supply chain pressures had a sizeable impact on inflation for a panel of 87 countries from 1998 to 2022. The effects are more pronounced in countries where tradable imports account for a larger share of the consumption basket and in those with weaker monetary policy frameworks and persistent core inflation.
"The Impact of Foreclosure on Housing Market: Evidence from Milwaukee, Wisconsin" with N. Kundan Kishor, Rebecca Konkel, Jangsu Yoon, Tian Zhao , Matthew W. Waller, 2024 (Submitted).
This study asks how foreclosures shape home values in Milwaukee between 2007 and 2020, drawing on a unique, proprietary dataset. We show that foreclosed properties trade at roughly 8.25% below their non-foreclosed peers—and the losses are even steeper for Black- and female-owned homes. Each extra year of ownership before foreclosure cuts values by about 1.16%, reflecting the “disamenity” of neglect and decay, while neighborhoods with high foreclosure rates face outsized “spillover” declines. In short, foreclosures not only devalue individual homes but also drag down surrounding communities.
"Interest Rate Misalignments and Monetary Policy Effects: Evidence from U.S. States" with N. Kundan Kishor and Labesh Kumar.
This study asks whether a uniform, national monetary policy really fits every state. Drawing on quarterly data from 1989–2017 for 33 states, we back out each state’s “ideal” interest rate using its local inflation and unemployment gaps, then compare those benchmarks to the Federal Funds Rate. We show that states routinely face rates that are too loose or too tight, and that these mismatches cluster by region. Moreover, when a state’s rate deviates by one percentage point, inflation falls by about 0.6 points and unemployment rises—effects that are stronger and longer-lasting than equivalent shocks at the national level. In short, understanding monetary policy’s real-world impact requires looking beyond the national average and into regional differences.
"Geopolitical Risk and the Dual Dynamics of Global Inflation" (2025)
I investigate how geopolitical risk shocks shape both the level and volatility of global inflation. Applying a TVP-SV-VAR to monthly data from 83 countries (January 1998–March 2023), I find that GPR shocks were mildly disinflationary during demand-short periods like the Global Financial Crisis but became strongly inflationary after COVID-19 and around the Russia–Ukraine war. Critically, I show that GPR shocks consistently amplify inflation’s volatility. For policymakers, this dual effect means that central banks must not only counter upward price pressures but also guard against wider swings in inflation, calling for more adaptable frameworks that can respond to shifting geopolitical regimes and pre-empt the amplifying role of global risk.
"Fiscal News and Inflation Expectations: A Heterogeneous Agent Approach" (2025)
IMF Working Paper No. 2023/039
Analytical Corner (IMF)
Presentations: International Monetary Fund (x2), Midwest Economics Association