Research
Research
4. "Interest Rate Misalignments and Monetary Policy Effects: Evidence from U.S. States" with N. Kundan Kishor and Labesh Kumar, forthcoming, Economic Inquiry, 2026 [Replication Package]
3. "Geopolitical Risks and the Dual Dynamics of Global Inflation", Economic Modelling, 2026, Volume 158, 107549 [PDF]
2. Are Inflation Movements Global in Nature?, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2025, Volume 29, e97 [PDF]
1. The Role of Survey-Based Expectations in Real-Time Forecasting of US Inflation, Business Economics, 2025, Volume 60, 77-98 [PDF]
🏆 Recipient of the NABE 2025 Abramson Scroll Award for Outstanding Paper
"Credibility, Inattention, and Central Bank Communication", 2026
Central bank credibility creates a communication trap: higher credibility induces household inattention, expanding the naive audience and amplifying the temptation to mislead. I develop a two-period signaling model with heterogeneous audiences in which household naivety is derived as a rational inattention equilibrium. A closed-form truth-telling threshold characterizes when transparency dominates, decreasing in credibility fragility and the discount factor. Two empirical predictions are confirmed across the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, with institutional heterogeneity consistent with the model's comparative statics. Structural calibration places the Fed firmly in the truth-telling region for every prior over shock persistence in 2021-23.
"Uncertainty and Restrictive Migration Rhetoric in Parliament: Evidence from Germany" with Youssuf Abdelatif, 2026 (Submitted).
In this letter, Youssuf and I examine the dynamic response of parliamentary migration discourse to uncertainty shocks. Using 27 years of German plenary debates (1991–2018), we construct a high-frequency Migration Sentiment Index (MSI) capturing rhetoric along an openness–restriction dimension. Local projection estimates show a systematic shift toward more restrictive rhetoric following increases in uncertainty, peaking after three quarters, with stronger effects for migration-specific uncertainty than for broader economic policy uncertainty. Results are robust to controls for inflation, unemployment, and migration flows.
"The Impact of Foreclosure on Housing Market: Evidence from Milwaukee, Wisconsin" with N. Kundan Kishor, Rebecca Konkel, Jangsu Yoon, Tian Zhao , Matthew W. Waller, 2025 (Submitted).
This study asks how foreclosures shape home values in Milwaukee between 2007 and 2020, drawing on a unique, proprietary dataset. We show that foreclosed properties trade at roughly 8.25% below their non-foreclosed peers—and the losses are even steeper for Black- and female-owned homes. Each extra year of ownership before foreclosure cuts values by about 1.16%, reflecting the “disamenity” of neglect and decay, while neighborhoods with high foreclosure rates face outsized “spillover” declines. In short, foreclosures not only devalue individual homes but also drag down surrounding communities.
"Time-Varying Comovement and Systemic Risk in the Canadian Banking Sector," 2026
"When Tradable Inflation Becomes Domestic: Second-Round Effects and Monetary Policy Trade-Offs," 2026
"Demand, Supply, and Monetary Policy Shocks in Disaggregated Inflation Gaps," 2026
"Fiscal News and Inflation Expectations: A Heterogeneous Agent Approach," 2025
Analytical Corner (IMF)